Political Prognostication Isn’t Rocket Science

Perhaps the greatest and most pernicious sociopolitical myth of the last two centuries is that social predictions are a form of science (“social science”), that human behavior can be predicted like spaceship trajectories. This is a perennial Leftist myth that conservatives (especially political prognosticators) sometimes embrace.

ESA just put a space probe on a comet 310 million miles away, but politicos can’t predict how which political constituency will vote in the next election. If you think African-Americans as a bloc are “destined” to vote Democratic, or corporate CEO’s are “destined” to vote Republican, think again. People are not mathematical theorems, and therefore, human history, including politics, is unfailingly dynamic. Long-term political predictions make everybody look the fool. History has real meaning. People change their minds. Especially in politics.

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